A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
